Andreas Krieg is an associate professor at the Defence Studies Department of King’s College London and the author of Socio-Political Order and Security in the Arab World.
After waging a destructive war at vast expense, Donald Trump has ended up in a weaker strategic position than when he started. His main achievement has been to battle-test Iran’s ability to shut down the Strait of Hormuz and disrupt the world economy.
The US/Israeli attack on Iran has inflicted heavy damage on its command structure, but the Iranian system is designed to withstand such pressure. We should expect a more protracted war than last summer, with political factors key to the final outcome.
Israel can inflict massive damage on targets in Iran thanks to its US-supplied technological advantages. But the old neocon fantasy of building a new Middle East through endless war is still as delusional as it is destructive of human life.