Trump Will Not March Quickly to Victory Over Iran
The US/Israeli attack on Iran has inflicted heavy damage on its command structure, but the Iranian system is designed to withstand such pressure. We should expect a more protracted war than last summer, with political factors key to the final outcome.
Tehran’s goal after the US/Israeli attack is survival plus deterrence restoration: convince Washington decisive victory is elusive, impose enough cost to force a pause, and avoid conceding the missile program that it views as the last line of defense. (Atta Kennare / AFP via Getty Images)
Andreas Krieg is an associate professor at the Defence Studies Department of King’s College London and the author of Socio-Political Order and Security in the Arab World. He spoke to Jacobin about the US/Israeli attack on Iran, the nature of the Iranian response, and the likely course of events over the coming weeks and months.
Daniel Finn
What has been the military balance sheet of the US/Israeli campaign and the Iranian response to it so far?
Andreas Krieg
The United States and Israel appear to have achieved what they most wanted in the opening phase: momentum, freedom of action in the air domain, and a disruptive effect on Iran’s senior command and control. The strikes look designed to create a corridor for follow-on operations and to push quickly from air defense suppression into sustained pressure on missile infrastructure and remaining sensitive nuclear nodes.
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