South Africa’s Coming Two-Party System

Recent local elections show the bleak future of South African politics: two centrist parties and no left alternative.


South African president Jacob Zuma often boasts that the African National Congress (ANC) “will rule until Jesus comes back.” Voters have consistently given it clear majorities in national, provincial, and local elections since 1994, when South Africa first made the transition to democracy. A certain level of hubris may have been inevitable.

But last week’s local elections shattered the party’s complacency: its share of the national vote dipped below 60 percent for the first time, shaving off some 8 percent of the ANC’s support since the last local election.

As a result, the party lost two key metropolitan areas — Nelson Mandela Bay (Port Elizabeth) and Tshwane (Pretoria) — to the Democratic Alliance (DA), the center-right opposition party. A close race with the DA in Johannesburg — the country’s largest city and economic capital — was another shock.

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