On April 10, moments before a ceasefire was announced, Donald Trump was making unhinged threats of civilizational genocide against Iran if that country’s regime didn’t immediately open the Strait of Hormuz. Two days later, Trump announced that because negotiations had failed, the United States would now blockade the strait. That kind of vertigo-inducing confusion has been emblematic of this war.

Six weeks after the United States and Israel launched a massive bombing campaign against Iran, the entire episode is looking like the latest in a mounting series of blunders surrounding the Trump administration. The United States and Israel dropped tens of thousands of bombs on Iran, battering the country’s exposed military facilities and infrastructure and killing thousands of people, including tranches of political leadership.

Yet the political regime in Tehran emerged stronger than it was before the war, when it was fighting off another round of massive protests. Iran’s drone technology and asymmetrical missile strategy have proven well-conceived and effective, while its operational domination of the Strait of Hormuz, a globally important shipping choke point, has reinforced Iran’s centrality in the world system.