The Ukraine war is a geopolitical crisis with truly global repercussions — with some of the most severe felt in the Global South. Many in the Middle East and Africa face major shortfalls in the food supply.

Egypt, for instance, imported 70 percent of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine in 2021, and is now taking aid from neighboring states in fear of a popular rebellion over food scarcity. Sri Lanka has just announced a default on its foreign debts as it seeks a deal with the International Monetary Fund, and protests over food shortages continue to grow.

Those are only the most immediate knock-on effects. In the longer term, geopolitical relations are being realigned permanently. With Russia cut out of the dollar zone by Western sanctions, its economic reliance on the world’s rising superpower, China, is growing. The United States is seeking to take advantage of the Ukraine crisis to broaden its coalition to contain Beijing.