On May 30, a group of thirty Chinese warplanes flew through Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, an incursion which has become a regular occurrence over the past several years. Since 2013, China has substantially escalated its claims to the semi-independent territory, a shift which is intimately linked to the contemporaneous “pivot to Asia” by the United States.

Current US policy on Taiwan appears simultaneously escalatory and muddled, with President Joe Biden repeatedly making belligerent statements that are then contradicted by his own aides. However, it is unquestionably based on the assumption that US threats will serve to deter Chinese aggression.

Ukraine should demonstrate that this is not necessarily the case, and China’s commitment to an integrated Taiwan is the centerpiece of a new strain of ultranationalist Chinese foreign policy. If maintaining some degree of Taiwanese independence is the most desirable outcome, the United States must stop recklessly matching Chinese escalations, which it played a key role in starting, and seek a diplomatic solution to the Taiwan crisis.