This year marked the forty-ninth anniversary of the beginning of the armed rebellion by the New People’s Army (NPA) of the Philippines, alongside its political affiliates of National Democratic Front (NDF) and the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP). The armed rebellion, initially concentrated on the island of Samar during the 1970s, grew to encompass practically of the Philippines, with the provinces of Mindanao, Isabella, and Tarlac having been the most prominent throughout the time of the rebellion. Most of the modern-day estimates place their strength at anywhere between ten thousand and four thousand fully armed fighters, with additional tens of thousands of Communist Party members and other supporters.

After surviving through six administrations of the Government of the Republic of Philippines (GRP), including the period of dictatorship and martial law of Ferdinand Marcos throughout the 1970s and 80s, the communist rebellion is now faced with a new challenge in the guise of the incumbent President Rodrigo Duterte. Despite early promises of negotiating a lasting peace agreement and granting release to hundreds of NDF political prisoners, Duterte’s stance has flip-flopped between conciliation and hyper-aggressive tactics of confrontation, including designating the NPA and CPP as “terrorist organisations.”  The latest round of peace talks were once again cancelled, with Duterte spuriously claiming a need to consult the public further.

At the same time, the regime is finding itself in an increasingly difficult position, economically, politically, and internationally. The introduction of the TRAIN law, a package of regressive taxation that significantly increases the prices of goods, particularly fuel, has sparked major protests throughout the country.