The Labour Party’s Main Problem Isn’t Losing Voters to Reform

Labour lost many seats and councils to Reform in the recent UK local elections, leading many to assume that they lost many voters to Nigel Farage’s far-right party. But a look at the data suggests this isn’t the main driver of Labour’s dismal performance.

Keir Starmer gesturing while speaking to a crowd holding signs that say "Vote Labour."

Squeezed from both the right and left, Keir Starmer’s Labour can’t seem to figure out who it represents or what it stands for. (Carl Court / Getty Images)


Not long before Britain’s recent local elections, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood told “white liberal” protesters to “f-ck right off” for opposing the Labour government’s highly punitive migration policy. Mahmood’s outburst, while notable for its vehemence, was not the first time a leading figure of Keir Starmer’s Labour Party expressed open contempt for progressive British voters. In 2023, Starmer himself threw down the gauntlet to the remaining supporters of his leftist predecessor Jeremy Corbyn: “If you don’t like the changes we have made, I say the door is open and you can leave.”

On May 7, Britain’s progressive voters gave the Labour Party exactly what its leaders asked for. In England, they abandoned Labour for the Greens (or for abstention) in droves. In Wales, they put the progressive nationalists of Plaid Cymru in power for the first time ever. And in Scotland, they helped the Scottish National Party maintain their position as the largest party in the devolved parliament at Holyrood.

Labour’s losses were staggering. The party lost more than a thousand council seats and control of many local councils. The big winner, particularly in England’s postindustrial towns, was Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. Reform gained ground in most parts of the country, and it is currently well-placed to win the next general election.

This article is for subscribers only. Please login or subscribe to access our full archives and beautiful print and digital magazine starting at just $3 a month.