Following an initial period of shock and horror, experts, stakeholders, observers, and journalists linked to the international climate process have energetically downplayed the consequences for the Paris Agreement of Donald Trump’s election victory.

Portraying him as a “pragmatic businessman,” some argued that Trump would come to his senses and see the economic benefits of climate action. Others questioned his capacity to actually push through his campaign promise of immediately “cancelling” the Paris climate agreement once inside the Oval Office.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon expressed his confidence that Trump would not undo the Paris Agreement. Ségolène Royal, the French environment minister and outgoing president of the Conference of the Parties, the yearly UN climate change meeting, declared that there was nothing to be worried about since it would take at least three years for a US president to exit the agreement (which came into force on November 4), and an extra year for an exit to actually happen.