Republicans heralded Donald Trump’s 2024 victory as the birth of a new majority: a multiracial, working-class coalition powered by newfound support among black and Latino voters, particularly men, who had finally abandoned the Democrats over inflation, the cost of living, and immigration. While that conclusion may have been warranted in November 2024, it is not anymore. Indeed, over the course of 2026, Trump’s new coalition has been coming apart at the seams.

Over the first half of this year, we surveyed Trump’s 2024 voters three times: 1,940 in February, with extra interviews among working-class black and Latino voters, nearly eight thousand in April and May, and 2,360 in a national survey in late June and early July. We found that the share of 2024 Trump voters who are not committed to voting Republican in 2028, what we call “Trump waverers,” has risen appreciably over the course of the year.

In February, one in five Trump 2024 voters had become Trump waverers. By April, it was 23 percent, and by July more than a quarter reported that they were not committed to voting Republican in 2028.