Why the US Is Losing the Iran War

US hegemony across the world seems to be waning. We can either sink deeper into violent, reactionary madness, or build a political alternative in which the United States plays a more constructive role among a community of nations.

President Donald Trump arrives to the commencement ceremony on Cadet Memorial Field at the United States Coast Guard Academy on May 20, 2026, in New London, Connecticut.

The US military is high-tech, dependent on airpower, bogged down with vulnerable, expensive fixed-capital assets in dangerous regions, and attached to a casualty-averse society with little trust in state institutions to make life better at home or abroad. (Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images)


The American-Israeli war on Iran has not been going to plan. The sweeping assassination campaign and massive aerial bombardment of Tehran’s military and civilian infrastructure did not cause the Islamic Republic to crumble in the opening days of the conflict, and its ability to wreak havoc on American bases and allied energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf has caught Donald Trump, Pete Hegseth, and their key advisers by surprise. Allied governments in London, Rome, Ottawa, Islamabad, and Seoul have mostly shied away from direct support.

Most of all, Iran’s ability to effectively control maritime traffic flows through the Strait of Hormuz has brought the world economy into a deep crisis that may take years to fully recover from.

Iran’s de facto control over a central artery of global capitalism also punctures the image of American global hegemony. If the United States is unable to ensure free passage through a major conduit for global energy supply and food production, then what use is American dominance to its key partners across Asia and Europe?

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