Russia’s War Machine Is Creaking
Russia’s war economy has this year suffered some of its worst setbacks since the invasion of Ukraine. An under-strain Russian society isn’t revolting yet. But Russians’ doubts about the war are growing.
Time and again, predictions of imminent Russian collapse have fallen flat. Yet weak military recruitment numbers and poor economic data show a gnawing loss of confidence in the war effort. (Alexander Nevemenov / POOL / AFP via Getty Images)
“I’m sure I’m not the first to tell you this. But something is definitely happening in Russia. You can feel it in the air. You walk down the street, get on the metro, sit in a café, and everywhere people are talking about the same thing.”
That message was sent to me yesterday by a comrade still living in Russia. Such moods are difficult to measure through polling. But they often detect the beginnings of change more accurately than professional pollsters can.
Since 2024, the Kremlin had been confident that Russia’s war in Ukraine was moving toward inevitable victory. Moscow had weathered Western sanctions, dominated the battlefield and military production, and retained clear resource advantages. Time itself seemed to be on President Vladimir Putin’s side. The Western coalition looked fractured, Donald Trump was seeking accommodation with Moscow, and Ukraine was short of money, weapons, and manpower.
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