Together, Ukraine and Russia produce 30% of global traded wheat and 12% of global calories — and 26 countries rely on the duo for food security. But the ongoing war between the two countries has stopped tractors in their tracks and engendered the greatest threat to the global food supply since World War II.

Disruption to the wheat supply chain originating in Ukraine means that grain can’t reach buyers in Africa and the Middle East, who have come to rely on the low shipping costs afforded by their proximity to the Black Sea to keep bread affordable in a region with some of the most grain-intensive diets in the world. Even under ideal growing circumstances, the Middle East cannot compensate domestically for the huge amount of imports lost to the war — and the growing circumstances are from ideal: Iraq, Syria, and Iran, for example, are currently experiencing a regional drought. If this export reduction reverberates through 2027, the MENA and Sub-Saharan African regions could each experience up to a 2% increase
in the size of their undernourished populations.

Efforts are finally being made to loosen the gridlock for the sake of global supply chains. A deal brokered in Istanbul on July 22 will release 20 million metric tons of Ukrainian grain, currently blockaded by Russian forces in the Black Sea, to buyers around the globe.