Just the Beginning
Whatever happens tomorrow, the Left is in a better position than ever to challenge Erdoğan's fragmented regime.
Only a few days are left before Turkey’s April 16th constitutional referendum on the transition to an authoritarian presidential system. Those who thought that the referendum would be an easy win for the government given the countrywide state of emergency have been proven wrong. The vivacity of the different “No” campaigns, in the face of the state’s heavy-handed tactics, is a considerable source of hope for all forces of social opposition, regardless of the eventual outcome of the referendum. In the little time that remains, we must not only strive to increase the “No” votes, but also initiate a debate on our strategy for the post-referendum period so that we are not once again caught unawares, as was the case after the general elections of June 7th, 2015, when the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) polled over 13%.
Why Did the Government Opt for a Referendum?
President Erdoğan, when faced with the fragmentation of the ruling power bloc — which became evident with the failed July 15th coup attempt organized by the Gülenists, his erstwhile allies — was obligated to form a fresh alliance with various other groups within the state apparatus. The basis of this new alliance was waging war against the Kurds in Turkey and Northern Syria, and especially, preventing the creation of a “Kurdish corridor” in Rojava. Erdoğan’s 180-degree turn on the Kurdish question gave him leverage in building new alliances and strengthening his position within the state, thereby expanding his social base.
Rampant militarism served to render the state of emergency — declared after the July 15th coup — legitimate and acceptable. It also bound together various political cliques with conflicting interests. The result was a series of so-called “national and patriotic” alliances within the state apparatus. Erdoğan’s rapprochement with nationalist figures such as Bahçeli, Perinçek, Ağar, Feyzioğlu, and Baykal gave him the chance to present himself as the leader and spokesperson of the state’s united backlash against the Kurds, in the complicated political conditions following the coup attempt.
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