In its manifesto for the May 2016 Scottish parliamentary elections, the Scottish National Party (SNP) stated that it would regard a “significant and material change” in circumstances since the 2014 independence referendum sufficient to trigger the demand for a second vote, without making explicit what might constitute such a change.

It was widely understood, however, that the most likely motivation would be if the then-imminent referendum on the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union resulted in a Scottish majority for Remain and an English majority for Leave. In these circumstances, the English would determine the UK result as a whole and the democratically expressed wishes of the Scottish electorate would be denied.

This is, of course, precisely what happened. The relatively close overall vote for Leave of 52 percent was reflected in England (where 53.4 percent voted to exit) and — more surprisingly — in Wales (with 52.5 percent). The Scottish vote was more decisive and, as expected, in the opposite direction: 1,661,191 people, or exactly 62 percent of those who voted, went for Remain — the highest percentage of any area in the United Kingdom, surpassing even the London Remain vote of 59.9 percent.