From a distance, the likely result of Sweden’s upcoming national election — victory for the Social Democrats (SAP) and their coalition partners — would seem to confirm the widely held belief that Sweden is still the model country of social democracy.

According to many on the center-left, while the European welfare states have been dramatically restructured over the last thirty years Sweden’s folkhemmet (“people’s home”) still stands strong. They aren’t entirely wrong. The health care system is still generally decent. Real wages for workers are rising, even as the rest of the European economy stagnates. Trade union density remains very high, around 70%. And even though the country’s historic commitment to full employment has been displaced by the concept of “equilibrium employment,” there are still subsidized preschools, free education with state subsidies for students, and 480 days of paid parental leave (with a gender equality bonus if the days are shared equally between the partners).

The SAP has governed Sweden for roughly seventy of the last 100 years. The conservative parties have learned the evident strategic lesson — to win elections, run on a social democratic platform.