On November 27, General Abdourahamane Tiani, head of the military junta currently running Niger’s government, declared the unilateral abolition of two key migration agreements which former president Mahamadou Issoufou had brokered with the European Union (EU) back in 2015. Most importantly, he repealed law 36-2015, which severely punished transporting migrants, particularly ones heading north. There was much speculation on the likely consequences of the move — yet many of the expectations that have been raised are misguided.

The Nigerien authorities’ move is unlikely itself to drive mass migration to Europe, as the EU still exercises brutal control over migration routes in the region. Neither is the move indicative of a power reversal between former colonies and colonizers, as desirable as this may be. In reality, relations between the EU and most states neighboring Niger, or otherwise located on important North African migration routes, are firmly embedded in neocolonial structures. Migration will be repressed, anyhow.

Particularly since 2020, economic hierarchies have grown even steeper, enabling the EU to use economic coercion to force such states’ political compliance on questions of migration. These means are adopted systematically: the EU has established “migration arrangements” with every single North African country, from Mauritania to Egypt and from Morocco to Sudan, by either coercing or bribing their governments, be they democratic or authoritarian. The sole exceptions are Niger and Algeria. However, it’ll take more than two exceptions to challenge global power relations.