Trump’s Surprising Working-Class Success

In November, the Right continued to lose wealthy suburbs but made inroads in working-class counties.

Despite the horrendous damage Trump’s presidency has wrought, voters in working-class areas across demographic groups were more enthusiastic supporters of Trump in 2020 compared to 2016, with 91% of above-average non-college-educated counties shifting toward Trump in 2020. While this trend was most pronounced in low-education, high-white-population counties, where 93% of counties favored Trump in 2020 more than they did in 2016, the same pattern holds for 88% of low-education, high-black-population counties, and 64% of low-education, high-Latino-population counties.

Contrast this with the highly educated metropolitan areas where Biden performed particularly well. Here, Trump recorded a 2020 advantage over 2016 in only 43% of counties.