Today, Catalonia heads to the polls in the first elections since pro-independence president Quim Torra was banned from public office by the Spanish courts. Torra’s ouster was the latest milestone in an ongoing battle between Catalonia’s institutions and the central Spanish state following the suppression of the October 2017 unofficial independence referendum and the jailing of Catalan leaders for sedition.

Given the recent years of conflict, the Catalan election campaign, like recent Spain-wide contests, has again been dominated by sharp divides over the national question. Polls in recent weeks suggest that pro-independence parties will win most seats (if not an absolute majority of votes), while the Franco-nostalgist, Spanish-nationalist Vox will enter the Catalan parliament for the first time.

There are diverse forces within the pro- and anti-independence camps, each commanding just short of 50 percent support; meanwhile, En Comú Podem, linked to Unidas Podemos, backs Catalonia’s right to self-determination, but does not call for independence. Among pro-independence parties, the dominant forces are the soft-left Esquerra Republicana and the centrist Junts. But this election is set to see a breakthrough for the anti-capitalist Candidatura d’Unitat Popular (CUP) and Dolors Sabater’s Guanyem Catalunya. Polls suggest their joint list will win eight seats in parliament, double their 2017 score.