Poland’s Lessons for Post-Orbán Hungary
Viktor Orbán’s defeat in Hungary followed the earlier ouster of Poland’s nationalist government. Yet while Donald Tusk’s 2023 Polish election victory was widely welcomed as the defeat of “populism,” his government has disappointed hopes of change.
Polish leader Donald Tusk’s poor record in power also shows the dangers of left-wing forces subordinating themselves to establishment forces. (Omar Marques / Getty Images)
Péter Magyar’s “announced program amounts to a ‘regime change,’” wrote political scientist Zsolt Kapelner shortly after Hungary’s recent elections, while also noting the new government’s lack of concrete plans. Especially in socioeconomic matters, it seemed unclear what Magyar’s liberal-conservative Tisza Party would change, after sixteen years under Viktor Orbán’s rule. We on the Polish left were making similar ironic remarks back when Donald Tusk’s coalition won power in Poland in 2023, likewise ousting a right-wing populist government.
One might, then, suspect that the lessons from Poland — and a coalition that also included the now-split left-wing forces, Lewica (“Left”) and Razem (“Together”) — may foreshadow what awaits Hungary. Certainly, Tusk’s story is now worth recalling, if only to explain how such a victory can end badly. For Tusk’s Polish government has been under pressure for some time now, navigating the stormy waters of both domestic expectations and European politics.
Has Poland Won?
In fall 2023, Poland emerged from years of deeply polarizing rule under the hard-right Law and Justice (PiS) party. The Civic Coalition, a broad center to center-right front led by Tusk, promised one hundred concrete reforms in the first one hundred days in office, spanning economic policy, social rights, and judicial reform. Today Tusk faces the consequences of partial implementation, compromises with coalition partners, and an electorate impatient for tangible results.
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