Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right government have a problem. True, Western leaders are still supporting the campaign of destruction and ethnic cleansing in Gaza — as well as expansionist wars such as the recent twelve-day conflict with Iran. Yet ahead of the Israeli elections expected next year, Netanyahu and his allies aren’t leading the polls.

The October 7 debacle, preceded by government attempts to dismantle the judiciary, has deeply damaged the far right’s standing in Israeli public opinion. Even the war with Iran, which most Israelis viewed as a successful campaign, failed to significantly shift the country’s electoral landscape.

A poll conducted on June 24 by Channel 12 news, one day after the hostilities with Iran ended, forecasts that the governing coalition will secure just forty-nine out of 120 seats in the next election. While Netanyahu’s own standing within his bloc improved, the coalition as a whole remains far from a majority.