Last week, the Financial Times quoted a “senior European Union official” calling the escalating war in the Middle East “a gift from heaven” for Vladimir Putin. He suggested that Western governments’ support for Israel is turning Global South countries into Moscow’s allies. As an unnamed Arab official quoted in the same FT piece put it, “If you describe cutting off water, food and electricity in Ukraine as a war crime, then you should say the same thing about Gaza.”

The tragedy in the Middle East certainly has caused an explosion of enthusiasm in the Kremlin and in Russian state media. They see this conflict as a “second front” that will divert Western attention from the war in Ukraine — and give Russia a chance to end it on its chosen terms. The short-term benefits for Moscow are clear enough, but in the longer run it may face unforeseen challenges. What seems like a gift from heaven today could become a curse.

Putin called the escalation of the conflict “a clear example of the failure of the United States’ policy” and offered Russian mediation for a peaceful settlement. This is a traditional step for a Russian president. Once upon a time, after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, Putin was the first foreign leader to call President George W. Bush to express condolences and offer assistance. For several years thereafter, US aircraft used the Russian air base in Ulyanovsk for their missions in Afghanistan. A successful military campaign for Moscow in Syria in 2015–2017 allowed Russia to partially overcome its isolation and resume dialogue with the West, interrupted after the annexation of Crimea. Today, Putin is trying to repeat this experience again.