On October 14, Australia will hold a referendum to decide whether to enshrine an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander voice in the nation’s constitution. If the referendum succeeds, the Australian Labor Party (ALP) government will establish a nonbinding indigenous representative body to “give advice to the parliament and government.” Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has promoted the voice referendum as a practical improvement to government decision-making that has “absolutely no downside.” And, having mothballed Labor’s earlier commitment to negotiating a nationwide treaty with Australia’s First Nations, the ALP is hoping that a centrist strategy will carry the voice across the line.

Notwithstanding the voice’s modest scope — and the yes campaign’s caution — the referendum has sparked a strong conservative backlash. After eclipsing majority support for a yes vote in July, the no campaign has established a formidable 49-43 lead in the polls. To make matters worse, support for the yes campaign is relatively loose. Forty-two percent of voters describe their position as “hard no,” compared to 30 percent supporting “hard yes,” while 13 percent self-describe as “soft yes” compared to 7 percent for “soft no.” While the most recent Essential poll showed a small bump in support for the yes campaign, the sizable “hard-no” vote suggests that fewer voters will switch from no to yes.

At the same time, a small but vocal minority of “progressive no” voters oppose the voice on radical anti-colonial grounds. However, as it becomes clearer that the referendum is likely to fail, concerns at the prospect of an empowered far-right have led sections of the progressive no camp to begrudgingly endorse a yes vote. This, however, may prove to be too little, too late.