It’s November and the best-laid plans of congressional progressives are crumbling before their eyes.

With Senator Joe Manchin threatening to walk away and leave both parts of Joe Biden’s infrastructure agenda dead on the floor, the White House and progressives have repeatedly capitulated to the West Virginia coal baron’s demands. First, they agreed on a flurry of cuts that halved the price tag of the $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill, eliminating virtually all of its most popular, meaningful measures. Now, with Manchin hinting at continued opposition on Monday, Congressional Progressive Caucus chair Representative Pramila Jayapal has suggested progressives will renege on another red line and pass the bipartisan infrastructure framework (BIF) in the House, decoupling it from the larger bill being assailed by Manchin — and giving up their main point of leverage in the process.

Underlying all this has been one core assumption: that Manchin, who seems driven mostly by personal enrichment and corporate campaign donations, would happily walk away from the whole process with “zero,” as he reportedly told Bernie Sanders behind closed doors. But what if that wasn’t true?