Everybody knows who will win today’s Portuguese presidential elections. The winner has been known since January 24, 2016, when professor Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, a tenured academic, politician, and beloved TV pundit, was first declared president. The foretelling of his repeat victory isn’t just linked to his success back in 2016, but to the fact that he has been such a perennial figure in political folklore — indeed, any other result would be unthinkable.

While his political affiliation lies with the center-right PSD, Rebelo de Sousa is a liberal populist best known for his many stunts — from driving a taxi around Lisbon during his mayoral campaign in 1989, to swimming to the rescue of two women whose kayak had capsized last summer. He’s been called the “King of Selfies” for the sheer number of photos he takes with fans; if not for the pandemic, he’d doubtless have been kissing every woman over sixty-five years old on the campaign trail.

It’s clear that by Monday, Rebelo de Sousa will be president for another five-year term: polls rate him close to 60 percent support. But that isn’t what these presidential elections are about. Rather, this is a poll on the rise of the far right — and a serious test for Portugal’s historic anti-fascist legacy.