We Aren’t Entering Into an Economic Recovery — Another Crash Is Coming
Stock markets across the world are rallying as lockdowns lift and central banks pump money into the economy. But the economy isn’t on the mend — on the contrary, this will likely be a calm before the storm of yet another devastating crash.
Stock markets around the world have been rallying over the past few weeks, driven in part by the unprecedented actions of the world’s largest central banks. In the United States, the S&P 500 is now back to where it was at the beginning of the year. The rally, combined with the easing of lockdown measures currently taking place around the world, is creating a great deal of optimism among market watchers. Unfortunately, the picture is not quite as rosy as it seems.
The stock market rally has been driven primarily by the actions of central banks — and particularly those of the Federal Reserve. The Fed has promised to implement “QE infinity” — in other words, it will not stop purchasing assets (using newly created central bank money) until it is satisfied that the risk to financial markets has passed.
Then there is the alphabet soup of new asset purchasing and liquidity programs that are supporting other markets. Through the Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF), the Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility (PMCCF), and the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF), the Fed is now buying the debt of private corporations — paying little attention to their creditworthiness, and absolutely no attention to their environmental impact or record on workers’ rights. Meanwhile, the government is backstopping the market for auto loans, student loans, and municipal bonds through programs like Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF; first used after the 2008 financial crisis), the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF), and the medium-term lending facility (MLF).
More important than understanding the details of each of these programs (most of which are truly vast) is understanding what they signify: the US government is demonstrating its willingness to buy up the debts of US consumers, firms, and states in order to prevent insolvencies and raise asset prices.
On the one hand, this seems like a positive short-term measure — no one is suggesting that the Fed should simply allow personal, corporate, state, and municipal bankruptcies to soar. But it also represents a profound shift in the nature of modern capitalism. The US state is telling its domestic businesses that no matter how much debt they accrue during the upswing — and no matter what purposes they use this debt for — when the crisis comes, they will be bailed out.
The implications of this message — which is also being sent by many other central banks around the world — are profound. The risks of running a business have been socialized, while the gains have remained private. Firms are free to pollute, slash wages, and avoid taxes in the pursuit of profit, and they’ll still be able to count on a bailout from the state when things go south. Investors are protected while the public and the planet pay the price. In the long run, QE infinity will simply push up asset prices — including house prices — exacerbating wealth inequality.
The realization that central banks are willing to do almost anything to backstop their domestic corporate sectors and protect private wealth is what has driven the stock market rally. The rich and powerful know that no matter how far the real economy falls, the state will be there to pick financial markets back up again.
Meanwhile, ordinary consumers — not to mention many small businesses — have been left out in the cold. While the job numbers that came out in the United States last week were surprisingly positive, commentators quickly spotted a glaring error in the numbers: most agree that unemployment stands at around 20 million — nearly 20 percent of the US population, the highest it has ever been. In the UK, employment is currently being protected through the furlough scheme, but most medium-term estimates assume that unemployment could reach similar proportions.
Small businesses have been provided with grants and loans, but these are not likely to continue forever. Moreover, they provide nothing more than a sticking plaster over a much deeper structural problem — the massive increase in corporate debt that has taken place throughout much of the world over the past twelve years.
Before the crisis hit, many observers saw a bubble in US corporate debt — and the UK was not far off. Banks have warned the UK government that when its so-called “bounceback loans” come to an end, between 40–50 percent of firms could default.
In short, the stock market rally tells us little about the fate of the real economy. In part, it is being driven by the concerted actions taken by central banks around the world to backstop falling asset prices. But it is also normal to see a rally in the midst of a crisis: stock markets rallied in mid-2007 as policymakers talked down the risks associated with rising defaults on US sub-prime mortgages.
Today, the bomb waiting to go off is not mortgage debt, but corporate debt. Even the Fed won’t be able to save the global economy from meltdown if a significant portion of the US’s — and indeed the world’s — businesses default at once. But that doesn’t mean it won’t try.
When this crisis finally does come to an end — which is unlikely to happen for another 9-12 months — states are likely to own significant portions of the assets in their domestic economies. The question they will then face is what to do with this power: use it to piece back together the status quo, or to build a fairer, more resilient and more sustainable economy.