As voters in the Republic of Ireland go to the ballot box, polls suggest that once the votes are counted, all hell will break loose. Unlike Britain and the North of Ireland, preference voting — that is, ranked-choice — is used for all offices. When Ireland’s head of government Leo Varadkar called the election, it was widely anticipated that the polls would hold up, with a strong showing for his leading Fine Gael party.

Throughout the campaign, both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have acted as though this is a normal, business-as-usual election: since 1932 both parties have been used to passing power back and forth between the two, completely convinced that the number of votes for their parties will ensure nothing changes, apart from the delicate balance of power between the pair. But the polls now suggest otherwise. Fine Gael has been seeing considerable drops in its support while Sinn Féin has increased its support each time. In the most recent polls, Sinn Féin has been leading Fianna Fáil in the popular vote, with Fine Gael trailing in third place.

Sinn Féin won’t win a majority, however: the party expected a defensive election and was focused on holding onto its current seats after some bruising results in the European elections. Fianna Fáil has repeatedly said it won’t go into government with Sinn Féin, issuing a far harder and more open rejection than usual, all the while claiming to be Ireland’s original Republican party, despite not running candidates in the north at all. Leader Micheál Martin has been particularly histrionic in this election: previously, Sinn Féin’s opponents pointed to Gerry Adams as purported proof the party and the Irish Republican Army were one and the same; now with the retirement of Adams this election, and the fact Mary Lou McDonald belongs to a younger generation of politicians, the party’s opponents must rely on contemptuous rhetoric and smears of Sinn Féin.