In the Baltics, Rearmament Clashes With Regressive Taxes

In EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas’s homeland of Estonia, increased military spending is putting pressure on the national budget. What makes it worse is a regressive tax system, which is putting the costs of rearmament on the lowest-income households.

Estonia Prime Minister Kristen Michal attends a doorstep statements during the 2026 NATO Ankara Summit in Ankara, Turkiye, on July 8, 2026.

Estonia and Latvia are two of the EU countries devoting the biggest share of their budgets to the military. In both countries, centrist parties have pushed the costs of rearmament onto lower-income residents and seen their polling numbers plummet. (Beata Zawrzel / NurPhoto via Getty Images)


In the week that NATO met in Ankara, calls for rearmament are reshaping political life across Europe. In the Baltic states, where the Russian threat is felt as most immediate, governments are already fast pushing defense spending up toward 5 percent of GDP. Much has already been written about the morality of militarization and its effects on civil society.

But looking at rearmament in Estonia and Latvia — two of the European Union countries devoting the biggest share of their budgets to the military — also tells us something about the politics of liberal democracy in times when states are rearming. The common thread in both countries is the question of who foots the bill. In each case, militarization is based on regressive taxation, spending cuts, and fiscal restraint that falls disproportionately on those least able to bear it.

Initial Gains

The Baltic states present an interesting case due to their widely acclaimed patriotism and European identity, which at least initially extended to powerful solidarity with Ukraine.

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