It is by now clear that European leaders prefer the war in Ukraine to continue, that they fear peace (a “quick” one anyway), that many believe Europe is already at war and seem “gung ho” to turn it into a shooting war, and that they are obsessed with inflicting defeat on Russia. Far less clear is why they think this way. Amid the whiplash of this year’s developments, an answer is emerging — a method to this madness.

We are living through a Zeitenwende. From the frisson with which this word is uttered in English media, you’d think it means “Germans like war again.” You’d be forgiven for thinking this when a Bundeswehr promotional video features a torch-lit ceremony with tanks in a Lithuanian forest, set to music from Lord of the Rings, or a minister wants to prepare high schoolers for war. Or, for that matter, when Germany brings back conscription.

But Zeitenwende means “end of an era.” That doesn’t just mean the one announced by former German chancellor Olaf Scholz in response to Russia’s attack on Ukraine in 2022. Rather, I’m thinking of a historical shift that came about all on its own. Three years after Scholz’s proclamation, and just days after taking office this January, the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, stated that the unipolar moment had been an anomaly — and that the world was reverting to a multipolar order, with room for Russia and China as great powers.