President Joe Biden gave a middling performance Thursday night in a press conference intended to assuage widespread worries about his age and mental competence — another twist in the saga of the Democratic Party’s elites’ realization that Biden may be too visibly senile and physically in decline to beat Donald Trump. At the same time, many socialists and antiwar activists are also making the case for Biden to drop out, arguing that his enabling of the war in Gaza disqualifies him from serving another term. A recent Lancet report suggests that since no one knows how many bodies are buried under the rubble, the Palestinian death toll could prove to be far higher than previously estimated.

Since no one on the Left wants to see Trump become president — a scenario that looks harrowingly possible especially after Saturday night’s assassination attempt — in this view, Biden is dangerous win or lose: he could continue to kill Palestinian children, or he could lose to Trump, a Benjamin Netanyahu fan who will provide even less of a check on Israel’s genocide than Biden, and whose presidency would be catastrophic at home and around the rest of the world as well.

Since October, Gaza has damaged the president’s image among crucial groups, including young people, progressives, and Muslims (the latter a small part of the US population but key to his victory in Michigan, a critical swing state). Because of Gaza, the Uncommitted coalition has joined the calls for Biden to drop out. The campaign had some success organizing people to pressure elected officials to support a ceasefire; during the primary, Uncommitted was an astonishing success, particularly in Michigan. “It blew holes in the media narrative about Biden being the presumptive nominee,” says Ashik Siddique, cochair of the Democratic Socialists of America’s National Political Committee. (DSA has joined Uncommitted efforts around the country.) Now that Biden’s own rapid decline has shredded that narrative still further, the campaign sees an opportunity to continue to push Gaza to the center of American political discourse.

But the Left is not united in calling for Biden to drop out. On Saturday, Bernie Sanders called for Biden’s reelection in a New York Times op-ed. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has said Biden is the nominee and that “the matter is settled.”

These left standard-bearers appreciate Biden’s domestic policy contributions, which have been better than expected. They probably believe that Biden can defeat Trump, perhaps even that he can be pressured to end the war in Gaza. But the facts available to us at present don’t support this: Biden’s reelection polling doesn’t look good, and neither does Biden’s dogged insistence on standing by Israel thus far.

Granted, it is not obvious that good things will happen if Biden drops out. Trump could still win. And even with a new Democratic face in the White House, the United States could continue enabling a holocaust in Gaza.

The antiwar left can’t plausibly endorse any alternatives to Biden, since there is no person who could win the election who has taken a sensible, humane position on the US relationship to Israel and the last year of slaughter that the world has witnessed. Siddique acknowledges that there is “no obvious alternative, no Democratic option who is going to demand a free Palestine.”

The millionaire and billionaire class apparently agrees. If dislodging Biden were guaranteed to end the war, it’s unlikely that the donor class would, in increasingly organized numbers, be joining the calls for the president to step aside, as it’s currently doing. Among the ruling-class voices urging Biden to drop out is Whitney Tilson, a hedge funder worth some $50 million who prominently urged fellow plutocrats to withhold donations from Harvard in retribution for its tolerance of campus antiwar protests.

It is odd for the left antiwar movement to be on the same side as Tilson against Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. But as Siddique says, getting Biden out would “shift the terrain. It would show that something can change.”

Moreover, while Kamala Harris is hardly an ally of the oppressed, she might be marginally better than Biden, possibly more electable at this point and more dovish on Middle East issues. Intriguingly, an internal government report leaked to journalist Ken Klippenstein suggests that Muslims abroad would be more optimistic with a president Kamala Harris in office. The report showed widespread despair over US policy in the Muslim world — understandably — but with Vice President Harris widely regarded as an individual with the power to improve that image.

There’s apparently some reality underpinning those perceptions. Harris has, according to Politico, asked the White House to show more concern for the Palestinians, and is also viewed, among those close to the White House, as less supportive of Israel’s ongoing rage-killing spree.

She is polling better than Biden, and as a younger candidate with more of a future, she might feel more pressure to listen to the rising number of voters who would like to see an end to the war. Biden is not just chronologically old, but stuck in the past, believing in an elite American fantasy of Israel as a force for democracy and one with a beneficial relationship to the United States, an illusion that even many in the foreign-policy establishment no longer share. As Klippenstein wrote of the debate over whether President Biden should drop out and Harris become the nominee, “Probably some at the State Department would be relieved if she did.”

A new Democratic nominee could ease the sense of inevitability and doom, both about the election and the war. It could energize the Democratic base to defeat Trump. It could also bode better for Gaza: though US policy on Israel won’t change overnight, a younger, less resolutely pro-Israel president would be an improvement. Biden’s implication in the Gaza genocide is partly a structural feature of being president of the United States, a longtime ally of Israel, but it’s also rooted in a deep personal commitment of his own. Biden has a stubborn personality, and has been unwilling to let the facts on the ground — the limbless, fatherless and motherless children and the mounting death toll — change his mind, even while many other Democrats have shifted in response to public pressure and new information. His tolerance of Israel’s massacre has, as Siddique says, “so deeply disillusioned large parts of his base.”

It’s a confusing moment. Siddique notes the unfamiliarity of seeing the antiwar movement intervene in a national election, which “hasn’t happened before in my lifetime.” One scenario seems certain to end in catastrophe, though: Biden remaining the nominee while the war on Gaza continues unabated.