It’s easy to forget now, but only a month ago, Bidenworld thought the Israeli assault on Gaza might be the president’s saving grace. After more than a year of dismal polling, Politico reported on October 20, Joe Biden’s advisors couldn’t believe their luck at “the opportunity presented by an unexpected crisis to feature Biden’s strengths.” It would show the US electorate a man “who is presidential, solid, and trusted around the world,” wrenching focus away from his age and ultimately proving an “inflection point” that would upend the political status quo.

That rosy prediction couldn’t have been more wrong. Over the weekend, a new NBC poll showed that far from improving his 2024 chances, Biden’s steadfast backing for Israel’s brutal, increasingly unpopular war has sent his approval rating tumbling to 40 percent.

The role of Biden’s disastrous Israel policy in cratering his poll numbers is especially urgent, with news of an Israeli-Hamas truce dominating headlines. Though Arab governments are urging that the four-day pause be extended into a proper cease-fire and serious talks for a two-state solution, Israeli officials are making clear they intend to quickly restart the war. Whether they do so will likely depend in large part on how Biden acts. And what he does should be informed, if not by basic human decency, then at least self-preservation.