The Great Replacement Theory Isn’t Going Anywhere
After the mass shooting in Buffalo, don’t expect conservative leaders to stop promoting the “great replacement theory” that inspired the gunman.

Tucker CarlsonPhoto by Gage Skidmore
In May, a gunman opened fire in a supermarket in a black neighborhood in Buffalo, New York, killing ten people. The eighteen-year-old murderer, Payton S. Gendron, is said to have scrawled racial slurs on the barrel of his gun and to have published a racist manifesto that runs into the hundreds of pages. Gendron seems to have placed a special emphasis on “great replacement theory,” the right-wing belief that “elites” are deliberately trying to replace white Europeans and Americans with immigrants and other people of color.
Once relegated to the fringes, great replacement theory has made its way to the mainstream of the conservative movement, with a third of respondents in one AP-NORC poll saying they believed in it. Fox News host Tucker Carlson in particular has brought the conspiracy theory into the homes of millions of nightly viewers, as the New York Times has extensively documented.
But while many articles in the Times and elsewhere have addressed the mainstreaming of the repugnant great replacement theory, fewer have addressed how it fits into the broader antidemocratic right-wing agenda. Great replacement theory is, at its root, a tool for increasingly unpopular conservative elites to justify to their base the use of increasingly extreme, antidemocratic, and yes, occasionally violent measures to maintain their power.