Vladimir Putin launched the Ukrainian war at a time when the civil and social alternative to his rule was gaining strength. In November 2021, less than four months before the invasion, his electoral rating had dropped to 32 percent, its lowest since 2000 — promising huge electoral problems, especially ahead of the presidential contest in 2024.

Putin faces an opposition which stands against corruption, against repression, for the alternation of power, for the redistribution of wealth, and for local self-government. In particular, the regions demand real federalization: they often express dissatisfaction with Moscow, the power center where the proceeds of Siberian oil and the forests of the far east, as well as other national wealth, flow into the pockets of the elite.

Yet as sociologist Grigory Yudin insists, it isn’t just a matter of the capital against the rest of the country. Indeed, the attacks on Moscow from the regions are a projection: “Muscovites suffer from this violence no less than others, and nowhere is local government repressed as much as in the capital.”