In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a growing chorus of voices on the Left are insisting that we grapple with the new reality of competing imperialist powers. Focusing on US empire exclusively, they note, is ill-suited for an era in which Russia attempts a European land grab, China crushes democracy in Hong Kong, India revokes the autonomy of Jammu and Kashmir, and the fate of Taiwan remains an open question.

The chorus is correct: a multipolar moment requires a multipolar analysis. But there has been much less recognition on the Left that today’s inter-imperialist rivalry is a specifically nuclear rivalry. The omission is particularly striking since the Ukraine war — where one nuclear superpower is the invader, and another is supplying weapons for the invaded country’s defense — has raised the specter of nuclear war like few other events in recent history.

The aggressor states mentioned above — Russia, China, India — are all nuclear-armed powers, as are their main adversaries: the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Pakistan. All these countries (along with Israel and North Korea) are updating their nuclear arsenals. Some, like China and the UK, are expanding them. Just this week, the Guardian reported that in the coming years, the total number of nuclear weapons on earth is expected to increase for the first time in decades.