Glenn Youngkin’s victory in Virginia’s gubernatorial race seems to have confirmed Democrats’ worst fears about the fragility of their coalition.

In a state that Joe Biden won by ten points and that hasn’t elected a Republican to statewide office in over a decade, Youngkin was able to defeat former governor Terry McAuliffe in a close race. What’s more, there are ominous signs that this isn’t a standard midterm reversal. The affluent suburbs that showed huge swings toward the Democrats in 2020, sealing Biden’s victory, swung toward the GOP this time, with Youngkin posting gains in the kinds of counties Democrats had hoped were theirs forever. If the Democrats can’t hold on to those suburbs in next year’s midterms, they have no chance of retaining their congressional majority.

Yet there is some even worse news for Democrats that has gone largely unrecognized in the endless Monday-morning quarterbacking that follows a loss like this: Youngkin’s win is bad news for Donald Trump.