We will probably never know how Belarusians voted on August 9. Nobody doubts that the results of the elections were falsified, but nobody has proved that Alexander Lukashenko actually lost them either. Attempts to extrapolate votes based on nonrandom samples from the precincts gave estimates in the range from about 30 percent to 60 percent for Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. So, the available results, including the official results, do not allow us to establish who won.

However, Lukashenko won’t go for any recount or revote, for this would trigger defections from the regime. Indeed, if he agreed to anything like this, it would mean that he had conceded his own defeat, like Viktor Yanukovych did as a result of Ukraine’s Orange Revolution in 2004.

Lukashenko’s position so far is adamant — he allows only a distant possibility of new elections, after changes to the Constitution, weakening the powers of the next president. This would give him time and allow him to secure some guarantees. However, protesters are united around the demand for Lukashenko’s immediate resignation. The violent radicalization ended last week — but the intransigence increases the chances of another round.