Prediction Markets Are Bookies With Venture Capital Funding

Backed by Silicon Valley–aligned venture capital and legal loopholes, prediction markets are creeping into every corner of life. They turn everything from measles outbreaks to government resignations to famine into opportunities for predatory speculation.

Kalshi Billboards Ahead Of New York Mayoral Election

Kalshi enjoys the protection of a legal loophole that classifies it as a financial trading platform rather than a casino or gambling operation. (Michael Nagle / Bloomberg via Getty Images)


The prime directive of contemporary technology companies is simple: if you can do it, you should do it. A corollary follows: if you can make a profit from it, you must try. Any consequences, damages, or negative externalities are secondary concerns, if they are concerns at all.

The rise of “prediction markets,” and their creep into every facet of existence from sports to politics and pop culture, illustrates the point. These platforms, backed by big money from venture capital funding, let individual or institutional bettors wager on potential outcomes through contract exchanges: who’ll get elected, who’ll win an award, who’ll break their ankle walking into the stadium. If you can imagine it, you can wager on it — or, as proponents of the markets might prefer, “predict” it. It’s a gloss on the old idea of putting your money where your mouth is. You think Taylor Swift’s album is a lock for best of the year? Why not put a cool $100 on it? The Cowboys are going all the way this year? Does your wallet agree, tough guy?

On X, a user laid bare the nature of these newfangled exchanges, writing “name a better rebrand than gambling becoming prediction markets.” The insight is spot-on. Prediction markets are casinos that facilitate online gaming at scale. They’re bookies. They claim otherwise, but that’s what they are, even if they function differently from the bookies of old.

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