Right-Wing Populism Didn’t Vanish — It’s Just Been Paused

Both the Liberal and Conservative Parties are liberal in orientation. But while the former is led by a technocrat, the latter is headed by a true believer in neoliberal orthodoxy — someone in the make and model of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, committed to deregulation, small government, tax cuts, and market fundamentalism. Carney takes a more restrained approach, advocating for increased government spending — though largely funneled through the private sector. Still, working-class voters flocked to each party while NDP support collapsed.

Canadian voters may not be overtly ideological, and class consciousness rarely defines the country’s political alignment. Yet Canada remains a class-divided society — and the working class knows it. Poilievre’s right-wing populism, modeled in part on Trump’s success in American industrial centers, has tapped into that awareness. His growing support among workers stems from real grievances: the cost-of-living crisis, housing affordability, job security, and the future of work. In a country in which resource extraction is critical, many of these workers also wish to build, and Poilievre recently focused much of his energies on putting forward an agenda that catered to that desire — and conflicted with climate policy that sought to reduce the country’s carbon emissions.

Ironically, Trump’s return to the global stage disrupted Canada’s right-wing populist momentum — just as the unpopular Trudeau was ushered off the stage and replaced by Carney, a leader voters were willing to consider and, at least for now, approve of. Trump’s attacks on Canada sparked a nationalist backlash that broke for the incumbent Liberals and made affiliation with the MAGA-movement — and its northern Maple-MAGA cousin — politically toxic. Both the Liberals and NDP worked to brand Poilievre as Trump’s proxy, and that strategy appears to have yielded results for Carney. Still, the forces that fueled pre-Trump dealignment haven’t disappeared. They’re likely to resurface much sooner than later.

Carney is promising to run capital surpluses to “catalyze” private sector investment and reduce the government’s operating budget — including programs and transfers. He insists he won’t slash services, but reductions in the budget will have real program consequences. Economist Angella MacEwan warns of “polite austerity,” echoing the Liberal budget of 1995, which gutted social programs and set the stage for the crises Canada is now facing — and for the class dealignment that continues to take shape.

The Center Will Not Hold

With the collapse of the NDP at the federal level, a rightward shift of the Liberal Party, and unresolved economic grievances — soon to be sharpened by a likely Trump-induced recession that will drift north to Canada — right-wing populism and dealignment remain real, active threats. Although the NDP technically holds the balance of power in Parliament alongside the Bloc Québécois, its influence is severely limited. The Liberals know the party is leaderless, broke, and in no shape for an election.

The Conservatives likely know the Liberal victory masks vulnerabilities. Public support is fickle, as Keir Starmer in the UK — and Poilievre himself — have already learned. Poilievre plans to stay on as leader, despite losing his parliamentary seat, and the party is preparing to weather this momentary downturn. The party brain trust knows that the anger, resentment, and exasperation that has temporarily shifted its expression away from the incumbent Liberals to Trump will not last forever. The party is ready to keep flipping voters with promises of “powerful” paychecks, tax cuts, getting government out of the way, and commitments to build, baby, build.

For many Canadians, the Conservative promises are appealing— especially in the absence of a compelling left-wing alternative, a viable electoral path for the NDP, or a grassroots national movement offering a different vision. Accordingly, the recent lull in dealignment is likely illusory — or, at best, temporary. This means the fight for the future of Canada’s working class has really just begun.

The main takeaway is this: the rally-round-the-flag effect did not actually resolve the conditions that gave rise to right populism. That anger hasn’t gone away — it’s simply been eclipsed by Trump’s threats and the urgency of national unity. But that détente won’t last.

Carney, with his pedigree in global finance, is the archetype of the political class that right-wing populists most despise. The fact that he now leads the country is less a sign of populism’s demise than a temporary postponement of its reckoning. And with the collapse of Canada’s supposed social democratic party, workers — those on the bleeding edge of every one of these crises — have been left with only the Right’s labor-lite overtures. The forces that once put Poilievre ahead in the polls haven’t disappeared. They’ve only been deferred.