The warning signs that the Democrats were in deep doo-doo on the economy were clear for years. In 2021, CNN described inflation as a “political nightmare for [Joe] Biden.” By the fall of 2022, the “Biden–gas price index” showed his popularity was moving in lockstep with the price of a gallon of gasoline. As gas prices rose, Biden’s ratings fell — and when prices eased, his numbers improved. By December 2023, NPR reported that Americans were in a sour mood because of the high price of groceries and gas. A month before the election, a majority of Americans — 52 percent — said they were worse off than they had been four years earlier.

Nothing is deadlier to incumbent presidents and parties than economic woes. The early 1990s recession sent George H. W. Bush packing after one term. Barack Obama trounced John McCain in 2008 after eight years of GOP rule led to the Great Recession. Jimmy Carter was kneecapped by inflation fueled by the Iranian Revolution, which knocked out 4.8 million barrels a day of oil production and sent prices skyrocketing.

Days before the 1980 election, Ronald Reagan famously asked, “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” The resounding “no” carried him to victory against Carter, ushering in the Reagan Revolution. Days before the 2024 election, Donald Trump reprised Reagan’s question at Madison Square Garden and was greeted by a chorus of “nos.”