The Perils of Overstaying

At a Liberal party meeting on Wednesday, Trudeau faced further discontent from his caucus, some MPs urging him to decide by October 28 whether he will stay on as leader. Trudeau responded that he’d take time to reflect on their criticisms. However, less than twenty-four hours later, he announced his decision to stay. “As a party, we’ve always had robust discussions about the best way forward. We’ll continue to have them with me as leader,” Trudeau stated.

Sources suggest that Trudeau is planning a major cabinet reshuffle in the coming weeks, though it’s unclear that this will ease the tensions within his party. Meanwhile, the US elections are being closely watched by Canada, as their outcome could affect Trudeau’s standing, depending on who wins the White House.

Trudeau’s team is losing key players, with four federal cabinet ministers recently announcing that they would not run for reelection. All were first elected in 2015, when Trudeau swept into office. In total, twenty-four Liberal MPs now intend to retire and seven others, including former ministers Marc Garneau, David Lametti, and Carolyn Bennett, have resigned since the last election.

Facing voter fatigue, Trudeau was further weakened last month when the New Democratic Party (NDP) ended their 2022 agreement to support his minority government in exchange for expanded social programs. This leaves Trudeau uncertain of surviving confidence votes in the House of Commons, where the Liberals hold only 154 of the 338 seats. If 170 opposition legislators vote against the Liberals, the government would fall before its term expires at the end of October 2025, forcing an early general election.

Trudeau recently survived a second nonconfidence motion brought by the Conservatives. Poilievre, eager for elections, leads by an average of 19 points nationwide, according to different poll aggregators. The CBC’s poll tracker projects Poilievre’s team would win 217 of 343 seats if the elections were held today, with the Liberals trailing far behind at just sixty-one seats. The Bloc Québécois is projected to win thirty-nine seats, while the struggling NDP would hold twenty-four.

A Resurgent Right

After nearly a decade in power, winning a fourth consecutive election would require a dramatic shift in momentum for Trudeau. In 2015, he rode a wave of optimism and promised transformative change for Canada.

His government established gender parity in the Cabinet, welcomed refugees — particularly Syrians — and immigrants, legalized marijuana, launched a national childcare program, and claimed to set the stage for an ambitious climate agenda. While many of these initiatives were initially met with acclaim, in 2024, Canadians’ priorities have changed.

Inflation, the housing crisis, and immigration are now top concerns. For the first time in twenty-five years, a majority of Canadians believe the country is admitting too many immigrants. According to a new survey, 58 percent of Canadians think immigration rates are too high, a 14 point increase from last year. Between 2022 and 2023, there was a 17 point surge, meaning that in two years, the percentage of Canadians who agree with the statement “there is too much immigration in Canada” has more than doubled, from 27 percent to 58 percent. The last time public sentiment was this high was back in 1998.

Poilievre has capitalized on this shift, increasing Conservative support with his populist, antiestablishment rhetoric. He has promised to eliminate carbon pricing, tackle the housing crisis, balance the budget, and reduce crime, accusing the Liberals of having “destroyed” the immigration system.

Trudeau acknowledged the difficult times that Canadians are facing in an interview on The Late Show With Stephen Colbert. “People are suffering. They have trouble shopping, paying their rent, and filling up with gas,” he said, blithely adding that voters are considering “a change.” He notably avoided mentioning that his own resignation is part of the change on voters’ minds.

Although inflation has dropped from its 8.1 percent peak in 2022 and the Bank of Canada is expected to lower interest rates to around 3 percent by mid-2025 — potentially easing grocery bills and mortgage payments — these improvements may not be enough to boost Trudeau’s prospects. Like many world leaders, he has suffered political fallout from the global pandemic. 

Trudeau’s tenure has also been marred by scandals that damaged his public image and, like many countries, Canada is experiencing political dealignment and is witnessing the rise of right-wing — and even far-right — movements.

At a time of heightened discontent among working people, the NDP is missing in action and the Conservatives are making inroads into what should be the NDP voting base, further bolstering their challenge to Liberals.

Lack of an Alternative

If Trudeau steps down, who could replace him at the head of the Canadian Liberals? One of the party’s biggest problems is the lack of a clear alternative. Several names have been circulating in Ottawa: Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly, and former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney, who recently became the party’s special advisor on economic growth. Carney has expressed interest in entering electoral politics but hasn’t specified when or in what role. Former British Columbia premier Christy Clark has also expressed interest in replacing Trudeau if he steps down.

However, none of these candidates appear to offer more appeal than Trudeau. A summer poll by the Angus Reid Institute revealed that a leadership change would not significantly close the roughly 20 point gap with the Conservatives.

Since the collapse of the agreement with the New Democratic Party, the Liberal government could fall at any time within the next year. The Conservatives have already announced plans to table no-confidence motions in the House of Commons to trigger early elections. The Liberals will need the support of at least one other party in the House to survive these confidence votes and remain in power.

This instability leaves little room to launch a proper leadership race. This is partly why the Liberal caucus has yet to call for one. “We know we don’t have time for that,” said one Liberal source.

Liberal MPs recognize that voter fatigue is nothing new in Canada. In 2015, voters were sick of Stephen Harper, the Conservative prime minister who was trounced by Trudeau. Similarly, another former prime minister, Brian Mulroney, left office after his approval ratings plummeted beyond repair. Only two prime ministers in Canadian history have won four elections in a row.

Beyond the challenges of having to organize a leadership race, the party would have very little time to introduce its new leader to the public before the next scheduled vote on October 20, 2025 — or earlier, should elections be called sooner. Although Canada traditionally avoids holding elections in winter due to weather, some analysts suggest that, given the current uncertainty, anything is possible. Perhaps the only thing colder than a Canadian winter will be the reception Trudeau gets if he tries for a fourth term.