Guatemala has been experiencing a slow coup since September 2023, when Bernardo Arévalo won the presidential elections. Led by a political and economic elite unwilling to renounce its hold on power, Guatemalan opposition groups are threatening to send the country down an authoritarian path.

Even during the holiday season, the coup forces have continued their attempts to destroy Guatemala’s fragile democracy. Now, as the time approaches for Arévalo to take office on January 14, the group often referred to as the pacto de corruptos or “pact of the corrupt” — made up of members of the three branches of government and the national business elite — has ramped up its efforts.

The Guatemalan military remains in the barracks for now. Instead, the fate of democracy in Guatemala is being fought out in the courts. Leading the way, the Attorney General’s Office, supported by the traditional political class, has spread false narratives of electoral fraud to not only discredit but attempt to legally annul Arévalo’s Semilla party. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court has given Congress the green light to strip electoral officials of immunity, allowing them to intimidate and prosecute authorities responsible for legitimizing elections. Not only that, bogus arrest warrants are constantly being issued against journalists, students, activists, lawyers, and members of Semilla, creating a climate of intense fear throughout the country.