At quarter to 10, a flat in south London erupted with joy. It was Saturday, September 30, and if the exit polls were to be believed, the centrist, pro-European Progressive Slovakia (PS) was on course for an historic victory in the hotly anticipated Slovak elections. This news was greeted with excitement by a group of young Slovak expats. As would later become clear, their compatriots around the world had turned out in droves to vote for PS — the party swept up 61.7 percent of the overseas vote.

But in the central European country itself, the picture was different. And as the first votes were counted, the atmosphere in south London turned more somber. In the early Sunday hours, it became clear that the exit polls had vastly overestimated PS’s performance. Instead, the election was comfortably won by Smer (Direction), the populist social democratic party of former prime minister Robert Fico, with PS trailing five points behind.

The announcement of the results was followed by “unease in the West,” as international media reported the victory of “a pro-Moscow former PM.” In fact, the Slovak electoral system makes it virtually impossible for a party to govern alone, and ongoing negotiations between party leaders will determine the shape of the next government. But it’s already clear that Slovakia has been added to the list of “populist” electoral upsets.