Opinion polls ahead of Greece’s election had generally credited the conservative New Democracy with a strong lead over main rival Syriza. Yet the scale of its success in the May 21 vote nonetheless came as a political shock. Except for the November 1974 elections, which came just four months after the fall of the colonels’ dictatorship, there had never been such a vast distance between the winner and the main opposition party. New Democracy secured a twenty-point advantage over Syriza, as Aléxis Tsípras’s party lost more than one-third of its 2019 electorate. There was also another unprecedented aspect of the result: not since 1974 had the total right-wing and far-right vote exceeded 50 percent, with the far right at over 10 percent — an all-time record — albeit spread over several lists.

New Democracy’s victory was not enough to win a parliamentary majority, and a new election has already been announced for June 25. This second vote will take place under an altered electoral system as the outgoing government reintroduced so-called “reinforced” proportional representation. This system is designed to ease the formation of parliamentary majorities by awarding a bonus of several dozen seats to the leading party. In this case, New Democracy looks all but certain to be able to form a majority.