A year into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there seems to be little hope of resolution any time soon. In the West, advocates of greater military support for Kyiv often argue that there can be no peace without Ukraine pushing Russia off the territory occupied since February 24, 2022 — or even Crimea, already taken over by Moscow in 2014. Critics, especially on the Left, point to the danger of an unending bloodbath or even escalation of the existing conflict. Yet calls for “diplomatic solutions” raise many questions, namely: What kind of settlement, or even ceasefire terms, would be even broadly tolerable to both sides, especially Ukrainians on the receiving end of the invasion?

Some insight can come from those with experience dealing with apparently intractable conflicts, and indeed the past attempts at a peace process in eastern Ukraine. One such figure is Wolfgang Sporrer, who teaches conflict management at the Hertie School of government in Berlin. He is former head of the Human Dimension Department of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) in Kyiv, where he led the civilian aspects of conflict management and facilitated and promoted dialogue between the opposing sides.

Sporrer was also involved in the diplomatic process surrounding the Minsk agreements of 2014–15. Mediated by France and Germany, the agreements were signed by the Russian and Ukrainian governments as well as the OSCE, for which Sporrer worked. Faced with the armed conflict in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, fought between Russian separatists and the Ukrainian armed forces, the agreements sought to provide for ceasefire conditions, albeit with limited success.