A little over a month after the 2022 midterms, the media narrative has solidified. The “red wave” predicted by the GOP and most commentators didn’t happen — representing a failure for Donald Trump, a triumph for Joe Biden, and a sign that trends point in the Democrats’ favor. Some have even gone so far as to say that this is the end of the road for Trump and that his brand of politics no longer has a place in the United States.

But in-depth analysis of the exit polls for the midterms tells a more worrying story. Youth and black turnouts were both far lower than hoped. The GOP successfully diversified its representation in Congress, revealing its ability to adapt to demographic changes in the US as well as Democrats can. And the narrative that Trump “lost” the election for the GOP is simply not true: most of the candidates that Trump endorsed won their races, and the GOP was able to take control of the House of Representatives from the Democrats.

Youth turnout during the midterms was low. This is in keeping with the general trend that sees lower turnout for midterms than presidential elections, but youth turnout in the most recent election was especially low. This was particularly true for the Democrats, who carried the under-thirty vote by only 53 percent, 8 points less than in 2020. This suggests either that there was relatively low activation of youth voters even as the Democrats presented this election as a titanic struggle between themselves and the end of democracy or that the GOP has successfully convinced a segment of young people who voted Democrat in 2020 to switch their votes.