A Postelection Coup in Brazil Is Unlikely. But the Military Is Still Too Powerful.
Despite fears that a military coup could follow Sunday’s elections in Brazil, the country’s military brass is unlikely to feel threatened enough to attempt one. Whoever wins, the military’s growing institutional hold on power looks likely to continue.

Current Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, during an audience with his former Minister of Defence and current running mate, General Walter Braga Netto. (Clauber Cleber Caetano / Wikimedia Commons).
Sunday’s presidential election in Brazil, which pits far-right president Jair Bolsonaro against former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (commonly known as Lula) of the Workers’ Party (PT), has rightly sparked fears of political instability and violence. Bolsonaro has consistently tried to weaken and discredit Brazil’s democratic institutions while declaring the election a “fight of good versus evil.” As Bolsonaro has busied himself discrediting the country’s electoral system and spreading conspiracy theories that he could only lose the election by fraud, several attacks by radicalized Bolsonaro supporters against supporters of the PT have highlighted the grave stakes of this election.
Worse, many fear a potential coup attempt by Bolsonaro if he loses the vote, as all reliable polls suggest he will. The military’s more or less explicit backing of the president and the large presence of off-duty officers in government further exacerbate these fears. Today, there are more officers in the cabinet than during the height of the military dictatorship that ruled the country from 1964 to 1985. More than six thousand military personnel serve in different functions in the administration and in ministries — almost twice as many as during preceding president Michel Temer’s government.
As in the 2018 election with General Hamilton Mourão, Bolsonaro has again chosen an off-duty officer — General Walter Braga Netto — as a running mate. The defense secretary Paulo Sérgio Nogueira de Oliveira, himself another off-duty general and previous army commander, has repeatedly joined the president in sowing doubts about the electoral system. Further underlining the symbiosis between government and military, the armed forces took part in celebrations of Brazil’s bicentenary in Rio de Janeiro that were clearly set up as another campaign event for Bolsonaro.