In hindsight, the least surprising thing about the Brexit referendum of June 2016 was the outcome. Plebiscites on European integration have frequently resulted in upsets: the Norwegians voted against membership, not once but twice; the Danes voted against Maastricht; the Swedes voted against joining the single currency; the French and Dutch voted against the EU Constitution; and the Irish voted against Nice and Lisbon alike.

Of course, there’s still an important difference between opting not to join in the first place and deciding to leave after four decades of membership. However, Britain had long been a country where opposition to the EU possessed a strong foothold in mainstream politics. During the referendum campaign, the Leave side had the backing of the country’s two most popular newspapers, the Sun and the Daily Mail. It also had one of the most prominent figures from the ruling party — Boris Johnson, the former mayor of London — willing to lend his support.

Armed with these political weapons, the supporters of Brexit had a fair chance of victory, especially in a country where years of economic crisis had fostered disillusionment with the status quo. The fact that the Leave campaign came out on top by a relatively narrow margin, 52 to 48 percent, should not have been a huge shock.