Figures released by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) this week have shattered any illusions that an early easing of lockdown would deliver a “V-shaped recovery.” As some have noted on Twitter, if you observe the graph very closely, you can just about see a tiny “v” at the very bottom — not exactly the bounce-back the government was hoping for.

The report notes that GDP fell by a quarter between February and April 2020 and that output is likely to fall around 12 percent by the end of the year. The OBR also anticipates that unemployment will reach 12 percent by the fourth quarter of 2020, driven up by firms opting to lay off furloughed workers when the scheme ends.

The long-term “scarring” effect that tends to impact the employment and wage prospects of those who suffer unemployment during a recession means that unemployment is likely to remain around 56 percent by 2025. This makes for grim reading. Coronavirus looks set to exacerbate many of the preexisting weaknesses of the British economy, leading to long-term — perhaps irreversible — damage. In this context, Rishi Sunak’s much-touted giveaways look like a drop in the ocean.