Are social conditions in Ecuador beginning to deteriorate? A report released in June 2018 on poverty and inequality by Ecuador’s National Institute of Statistics and Census found that poverty crept up slightly between June 2017 and June 2018, with 24.5 percent of the population living in poverty, up from 23.1 percent the year before. While these numbers may appear low, they could be a sign of things to come as the Ecuadorian government under Lenín Moreno doubles down on economic policies favoring austerity and deregulation while attempting to discredit the Left.

The political and economic prognosis appeared quite different when Moreno was elected in April 2017, representing the center-left ruling party, Alianza País (Country Alliance), narrowly defeating neoliberal banker Guillermo Lasso. The Latin American left, against the backdrop of a resurgent Right turn, was relieved: onlookers expected Moreno to continue the progressive advances his predecessor, Rafael Correa, had made during his tenure in office under the Citizens’ Revolution, with perhaps a softer edge. But once in office, Moreno swiftly pivoted on his campaign promises, governing with a right-wing neoliberal agenda that has already chipped away at the gains of the Citizens’ Revolution and could threaten to bury it entirely.

Alianza País is now split. Moreno, who served as Correa’s vice president from 2007 to 2013, has changed the party leadership and its priorities. Correa and his supporters left the party in January 2018 and have not been allowed to form their own party structures since. Meanwhile, under Moreno’s leadership, Alianza País has lost much of its previous support. Since his inauguration, Moreno has claimed his government inherited an economic and institutional crisis, presenting neoliberal adjustment policies and austerity as the solution.