I have no predictions for what will happen today. But the two things that stand out to me are that the Republicans still could hold on to Congress and yet, meanwhile, the Democrats could win back the House despite economic growth and generally positive attitudes towards that growth. I see three politically significant features of this.

First, if the Republicans do hold on to both houses of Congress, I think that will be misinterpreted as Republican strength. To my mind, it will be a reflection of the weakness of the Democratic Party — not to mention the political insignificance of everyone to the left of the Democratic Party (including myself). This midterm is objectively a real opportunity to take advantage of the unpopularity of the Republicans, at least in the most democratic part of the government, the House. Aside perhaps from immigration, none of the core elements of the Republican platform are actually popular — taxes, health care, racism. At least two of them, which they ran aggressively on the last few cycles — taxes and health care — are clearly much more unpopular than they used to be.

But the Democrats just don’t have that much to offer. They’re running “against Trump” and, if ad-buys and other reporting is to be believed, on health care. A lot is going on beneath the surface, and sometimes on the surface, of the Democratic Party, but as yet, it seems to me to have only a very limited ability to articulate an appealing, positive alternative in a way that allows it to take full advantage of this unusual situation: an incumbent party that can’t really run on its political economy in the midst of economic growth.